Uzbekistan drafts FDI Attraction Strategy to 2030 targeting quality investment over volume

10 July 2026

The Ministry of Investments, Industry and Trade has prepared a draft Presidential Decree approving Uzbekistan's Strategy for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment to 2030. The strategy sets out Uzbekistan's ambitions as an investment destination, identifies priority sectors, establishes a new facilitation and protection architecture, and defines a detailed roadmap of measures to be implemented through to 2030. As with other recent draft instruments, specific targets and measures may be adjusted before adoption, but the direction and scale of ambition are clear.

Where Uzbekistan stands: recent performance and structural challenges

Uzbekistan has recorded exceptional FDI growth over the past five years. Annual inflows rose from $9.0 billion in 2021 to $38.4 billion in 2025, a 4.3-fold increase and one of the fastest growth rates in Central Asia. Total foreign investment and loans attracted between 2021 and 2025 reached $109 billion.

Despite this trajectory, the strategy is frank about structural weaknesses that constrain the quality and sustainability of inflows.

The most significant is source concentration. In 2025, China alone accounted for 44.4% of total FDI ($17.1 billion), with the top five investor countries representing 76.6% of the total. The remaining top investors were Russia ($4.8 billion), Turkey ($2.9 billion), Saudi Arabia ($2.8 billion) and Germany ($1.8 billion), followed by the UAE, the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands and Singapore. This level of dependency on a small number of partners is identified as a structural risk the strategy explicitly aims to address.

The second challenge is sectoral imbalance. In 2025, investment was concentrated in energy (19%), agriculture (10%), construction and utilities (10%), mining and metallurgy (9%), textiles (8%) and construction materials (8%). Knowledge-intensive sectors received far less: electronics (2.3%), automotive (1.9%), digital technologies (1.6%) and pharmaceuticals (1%). Together, high value-added sectors accounted for only around 7% of total FDI. The strategy's central ambition is to change this ratio.

The third challenge is regional disparity. During 2021 to 2025, Tashkent City attracted $12.7 billion (20.5% of total), while Karakalpakstan received only $0.9 billion. The strategy commits to monitoring and addressing this imbalance through a digital investment attractiveness ranking platform and targeted regional measures.

On sovereign credit, Uzbekistan achieved upgrades from all three major rating agencies in 2025. S&P upgraded from BB- to BB (Stable), Fitch from BB- to BB, and Moody's maintained Ba3 while improving the outlook to Positive. These upgrades reduced sovereign borrowing costs by an estimated 1 to 1.5 percentage points. The strategy notes World Bank evidence that a one-notch improvement in sovereign ratings may increase FDI inflows by 6 to 10% in developing countries.

Headline targets and KPIs

The strategy sets six binding headline objectives for the 2026 to 2030 period:

• Annual FDI volumes to grow at an average of 5 to 7% per year through to 2030, from the 2025 baseline of $38.4 billion
• FDI's share of GDP to reach 26% by 2030
• The share of high value-added sectors in total FDI to double from approximately 7% in 2025 to 15% by 2030
• Diversification of investment sources, reducing the share of the single largest investor country from 44% to 30%
• Sovereign credit rating to be upgraded to investment grade (BBB-) by 2030
• Creation of more than 30,000 qualified jobs per year in high value-added sectors

The investment grade target is among the most structurally significant commitments. Achieving BBB- status would open Uzbekistan to institutional capital from sovereign wealth funds and pension funds with investment grade mandates, and would materially change the risk perception of the market for international investors.

Uzbekistan's competitive position: geography and human capital

The strategy frames Uzbekistan's investment case around two structural advantages that are not dependent on policy: geography and demographics.

Despite being one of only two double-landlocked countries in the world, Uzbekistan sits at the intersection of major Eurasian transit corridors and provides access to approximately 80 million consumers across Central Asia. Key infrastructure developments reinforcing this position include the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor, the Navoi International Logistics Center and upgraded international airports in Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara, Urgench and Navoi. The strategy commits to expanding multimodal transport corridors, developing dry ports and positioning Uzbekistan as a regional logistics hub.

On demographics, Uzbekistan's population reached 38.4 million in 2026 with a labour force of 21.4 million. More than 600,000 young people enter the labour market annually, the average age is approximately 29 years, and unemployment declined from 5.5% in 2024 to 5.0% in 2025. Average monthly wages reached approximately $380 in 2025, making Uzbekistan competitive for labour-intensive manufacturing. Universities expanded from 77 to more than 220, higher education enrolment rose from 9% in 2017 to 42% in 2024, and more than 30 foreign university branches have been established.

Priority sectors

The strategy identifies the following sectors as priorities for targeted FDI attraction, each accompanied by specific investment targets, flagship projects and designated responsible ministries:

• Manufacturing, with a focus on export-oriented production, localisation of global supply chains and import substitution in strategic goods
• Energy, including renewable generation, energy efficiency and modernisation of transmission and distribution infrastructure
• Agriculture and food processing, targeting value-added processing, cold chain logistics and integration into global food supply chains
• Pharmaceuticals and medical devices, aiming to develop local production capacity for essential medicines and equipment
• Tourism and hospitality, leveraging Uzbekistan's cultural heritage to attract international hotel brands, tour operators and infrastructure investors
• Digital economy and technology, including data centres, software development, fintech and e-commerce infrastructure
• Transport and logistics, reflecting Uzbekistan's position as a transit hub and the opportunity presented by shifting trade routes

A new investment facilitation architecture

The strategy introduces a restructured approach to investment facilitation built around three elements.

A strengthened single investment window will consolidate all permits, approvals, registrations and licences into a single digital portal with defined processing timelines and automatic approval where deadlines are missed.

A tiered investor support system will be calibrated to investment size and strategic significance. Large strategic investors above defined thresholds will be assigned dedicated government representatives providing direct assistance through the full project lifecycle. Mid-size investors will have access to a dedicated support desk. All investors will have access to an online grievance mechanism with mandatory response timelines.

A proactive investment promotion programme will include a pipeline of pre-packaged investment opportunities with feasibility studies, site assessments and regulatory pre-clearances completed in advance. Uzbekistan's overseas representations will be tasked with targeted outreach to defined investor profiles in key source markets including the Gulf states, China, South Korea, the European Union and the United States.

Investor protection measures

The strategy commits to a set of investor protection enhancements going beyond Uzbekistan's existing bilateral investment treaty network.

A stabilisation mechanism will be introduced for qualifying investments above defined thresholds, freezing regulatory and tax conditions at the time of investment for a defined period. The strategy also commits to strengthening the enforceability of arbitration awards against state entities, streamlining recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitral awards in Uzbek courts, and introducing a dedicated investment dispute prevention mechanism allowing investors to raise concerns with a senior government body before initiating formal dispute proceedings. Expropriation protections will be codified more explicitly in domestic legislation, with compensation aligned to fair market value and prompt payment requirements. The strategy references internationally recognised arbitration institutions including LCIA, SIAC and ICSID as models for the dispute settlement framework.

Regulatory reform roadmap

The table below sets out the key measures from the roadmap most relevant to international companies. Specific provisions may be adjusted before adoption.

What this means for your business

The FDI Strategy to 2030 is the most comprehensive statement of Uzbekistan's investment ambitions and reform commitments in recent years. Its framing marks a deliberate shift: after five years of prioritising volume, the government is now focused on quality, diversification and the institutional conditions that make investment durable.

The source diversification target directly shapes the policy environment for companies from the Gulf, Europe, East Asia and North America. The government will be actively seeking to expand the investor base beyond its current concentration, which creates a more favourable reception for new entrants from these regions.

The branch registration measure is a specific practical improvement for international companies. Currently, foreign legal entities lack a formal branch registration procedure in Uzbekistan, which creates uncertainty around legal presence and operational structures. The introduction and digitalisation of this procedure, due by end of 2027, will provide a cleaner and more predictable market entry option.

The stabilisation mechanism for qualifying investments, if delivered as described, directly addresses one of the most frequently cited concerns of international investors: the risk that conditions change adversely after a long-term commitment has been made. Its practical value will depend on the thresholds set, the scope of the guarantee and the enforceability of investment agreements, all of which will be determined in implementing instruments.

The investment grade credit rating target by 2030 is the most structurally significant long-term commitment. If achieved, it would transform the universe of capital available to Uzbekistan and materially change the risk perception of the market for international institutional investors. The 2025 rating upgrades from all three major agencies suggest this target, while ambitious, is not unrealistic.

The regulatory reform roadmap contains a number of measures that will affect compliance practices and reporting obligations for companies with existing operations, particularly the inspection white list, the regulatory impact assessment requirement and the IFRS adoption timeline. These should be tracked as implementing instruments are published.